Analysis of the current market situation of China'

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Analysis of the current market situation of China's paper industry

the fast-moving necessities attribute of household paper determines that its market demand is rigid. According to the latest data, the output of household paper base paper in August was 314900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and the growth rate slowed down. From January to August, the cumulative output of household paper base paper reached 2516000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, which is basically consistent with the level of the same period last year

judging from the raw material cost of high-end wood pulp household paper, the price of main coniferous pulp continued to rise this week, with a range of 50-100 yuan/ton. The quotations of black needle, cloth array and silver star have approached the rebound peak at the beginning of the year. The market reported that with the increase of the external offer, the domestic consignee's intention to accept the offer was low, and most manufacturers still purchase on demand, and the actual order delivery was general

since the inventory cycle of raw materials of household paper enterprises is generally 3-6 months, and raw materials are usually stockpiled when wood pulp raw materials are low, the increase of gross profit margin will continue to be reflected in the next 1-2 quarters. Therefore, from the perspective of raw material side, we believe that in the first half of this year, against the background of the obvious increase in wood pulp price compared with last year, household paper enterprises in the fourth quarter are difficult to maintain last year's low-cost raw material dividends, and the continuous improvement of performance depends on the improvement of profitability brought about by the upgrading of product structure and the strengthening of channel distribution capacity

judging from the industry dynamics and market feedback around the country, the price of needle pulp in Northeast China, North China and other places continues to rise, with a range of 1-2%, but the downstream purchase intention is general, mostly based on buy and use. Since August, the continuous rise in the price of imported wood pulp has not played a supporting role in the paper price, and the household paper market shows a trend of slack in the peak season. We believe that the terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the procurement speed is slow before the holiday, and the pressure on paper mills to ship is large. The market situation of household paper before and after the National Day is still weak, and the paper price is temporarily stable

in the context of the obvious rebound in the price of wood pulp raw materials this year, household paper enterprises are difficult to enjoy the raw material dividends brought by low-cost raw materials last year. In addition, in recent years, the pace of capacity expansion in the household paper industry has accelerated, especially the overcapacity of low-end roll paper has become increasingly prominent, and the price war has led to meager profits for small and medium-sized paper mills. Benefiting from the general trend of consumption upgrading, household paper enterprises with a relatively high proportion of high-end paper products and product chains covering other high margin sanitary products can effectively avoid the fierce competition caused by overcapacity and ensure good performance growth

at present, the dissolving pulp used by viscose staple fiber enterprises that export the experimental results to excel in the downstream of the pulping market mainly includes cotton dissolving pulp (cotton pulp), wood dissolving pulp (wood pulp) and other kinds of dissolving pulp (bamboo pulp, hemp pulp, sugarcane pulp, etc.). Among them, cotton dissolved pulp takes cotton lint (a by-product of cotton seed that is not normally developed and shorter than normal cotton fiber) as raw materials, wood dissolved pulp takes coniferous wood chips and hardwood chips as raw materials, and other dissolved pulp takes hemp, bamboo chips, bagasse, etc. as raw materials

the price trend of dissolved pulp products is closely related to the support of downstream textile demand, and power consumption is one of the indicators that can most truly reflect the order growth rate of the textile industry. According to the latest data, the power consumption of the textile industry in August increased by 7.74% year-on-year, and fell 5.15 percentage points month on month. The year-on-year and month on month growth rates of power consumption in the textile industry fell in August, showing the unsustainability of the growth rate, and the trend of downstream demand improvement in the industry is not clear

paper packaging materials are mainly corrugated paper and kraft liner paper, while plastic packaging materials are mainly PE, PP and other particles. The price of paper packaging raw materials remained stable last week, and the price of plastic particles generally retreated this week after rising in the early stage. LLDPE fell by 250 yuan/ton, LDPE fell by 400 yuan/ton, and PP fell by 100 yuan/ton

the supporting processing attribute of packaging enterprises determines the importance of the demand of downstream industries (metal impact machine operation, consumer electronics, food and beverage, high carbon steel and non-ferrous are more sensitive, household chemical products and household appliances, etc.) to their profitability. In terms of downstream demand, the latest data showed that the growth rate of household appliances was stable in August, and the prosperity of the consumer electronics industry fell slightly, while the growth rate of food, beverage and household chemical products remained stable, achieving long-term stable growth through economic cycle fluctuations

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