Data analysis of the hottest chemical fiber market

2022-09-21
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According to the monitoring of China Shengze silk chemical fiber index (hereinafter referred to as "Shengze index") of the Ministry of Commerce, the market prosperity index of chemical fiber products in January this year was 109.45 points, up 2.41 points compared with December last year, showing a slight upward trend. However, since the Spring Festival, the market has changed the market trend of "rising first and then stabilizing" in previous years, with a slow recovery and low product turnover. In the week from February 6 to February 10, the total index of Shengze index decreased by 0.2 points from the previous week and closed at 96.47 points. Among them, the value of the test circle automatically latched after the chemical fiber specimen was broken, and the fabric price index fell 0.16 points to close at 96.13 points; The chemical fiber index closed at 97.71 points, down 0.18 points from the previous week

market analysis: in January, affected by the Spring Festival, the market entered the traditional off-season, the order volume decreased significantly, the fabric sales market weakened comprehensively, and the inventory of weaving manufacturers increased significantly. These results are expected by enterprises. In addition, according to the experience of previous years, after the Spring Festival, the market textile market will mostly show an upward trend. The universal wood-based panel testing machine generally performs gb/t17657 ⑴ 999 "experimental methods for physical and chemical properties of wood-based panels and veneered wood-based panels". In January, weaving enterprises generally have a bullish attitude towards the market. At the same time, the textile raw material market has rebounded in January, especially the chemical fiber raw material market rose significantly, and the prices of some chemical fiber products rose, which may support the recovery in the future market

however, the downturn in the market after the Spring Festival was somewhat unexpected. Because the market of chemical fiber raw materials has basically strengthened as a whole, PTA internal and external prices and futures prices have increased to a certain extent, and the mainstream negotiated price of semi gloss chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has remained at about 11300 yuan/ton. However, the downstream market is weak. At present, the sales market of the downstream fabric market is still relatively flat, and there is little substantive demand for raw materials. In addition, the grey cloth inventory of weaving manufacturers is generally high, so it is expected that the raw material market will not improve greatly in the short term, and the trend will tend to be stable and weak. Industry analysts believe that there are mainly the following factors

first, the rise of raw materials in the upstream has slowed down, and the transfer of costs to the downstream has tended to be cautious. Recently, geopolitical issues such as Syria and Iran still provide impetus for the rise of international crude oil prices. However, affected by market supply and demand and other factors, the rise of polyester raw materials began to stabilize, and the cost transfer to the downstream began to be cautious

second, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the raw material sales are weak. According to the data of 2011, the comprehensive index of foreign trade orders in China's textile industry has been running at a low level and has a rapid downward trend. Affected by this, the service life of downstream weaving is short after the Spring Festival, and the order receiving situation in the market is relatively flat. In addition, now weaving manufacturers generally have 1-2 months of grey fabric inventory, so the resumption of work in the weaving Market after the festival is relatively slow, and the startup rate of manufacturers is generally not high. Moreover, weaving manufacturers have hoarded raw materials inventory for half a month to one month before the festival, and their willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong at present

third, it is difficult for textile enterprises to finance. In addition, the high inventory takes up funds. As mentioned above, the stability of the three closed-loop models is related to the samples, and the capital pressure of enterprises has increased significantly

Outlook: according to the current situation, it is difficult for internal and external demand to have substantial growth in the short term. Therefore, the chemical fiber market is mainly "cost driven" in the near future, and demand will continue to curb the market. It is generally expected that the overall operation situation of the chemical fiber industry this year is relatively severe. If cotton picks up in the second half of the year, the market may rebound, which is estimated to be better than that in the first half of the year. Under the severe situation, the industry urgently needs to overcome the difficulties through positive transformation and innovation

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